Critical Minerals: Why Did Prices Rebound in 2025 and 2026?
Critical mineral prices saw a sharp rebound in 2025 and early 2026. Cobalt climbed by roughly 130%, while lithium more than doubled over the same period, in a market shaped by strong demand, supply constraints, and tightening trade restrictions [3].
These shifts highlight broader challenges tied to supply chains, the concentration of refining capacity, and the rapid growth in demand for key minerals linked to the energy sector [5]. They also underscore the importance of diversifying supply sources and building new production and processing capacity to meet future needs.
Key takeaways
Critical mineral prices rebounded in 2025: cobalt rose by about 130%, lithium more than doubled, and copper reached record highs. [3]
Demand for key minerals tied to the energy sector is growing at close to 10% a year. In 2025, the energy sector accounted for roughly 75% of that demand growth [5].
Refining concentration has reached a record level: the leading supplier accounts for an average of about 70% of refined output for the main energy minerals [5].
Supply deficits in copper and lithium are expected to persist until 2035 [3].
Public funding commitments for critical mineral projects in advanced economies more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, reaching about USD 65 billion [2].
What's Driving the Price Rebound?
The recent rebound in critical mineral prices isn't the result of a single cause. Depending on the market, it reflects a mix of robust demand, supply constraints, and new trade restrictions. The scale and timing of these increases therefore vary considerably from one mineral to another, depending on each one's specific production and supply conditions [3].
Uneven Price Increases Across Minerals
The trends seen in 2025 and early 2026 illustrate these differences. Some markets reacted mainly to supply restrictions, while others were shaped by demand or production losses:
Cobalt rose by roughly 130% during this rebound, driven mainly by export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [3].
Lithium more than doubled during the rebound observed in 2025 and early 2026, amid strong demand for energy storage and constrained supply [3].
Copper reached record levels. Its average price was projected at around USD 9,700/tonne in 2025, before climbing to USD 12,000/tonne by year's end, largely due to production losses in Indonesia, Australia, and Chile [4].
NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) rare earths reached about USD 83,000/tonne in China in December 2025, in a market notably affected by the halt of MP Materials' exports [4].
Tungsten saw a particularly steep rise, with its price multiplying sixfold in the trend that began in 2024 and continued through 2025 and early 2026, against a backdrop of new export controls and sustained demand [3].
Table 1 — Recent Price Trends for Major Critical Minerals
| Mineral | Change | Main driver |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | +130% | Export restrictions from the DRC |
| Lithium | More than doubled | Storage demand + constrained supply |
| Copper | USD 12,000/t (end of 2025) | Production losses (Indonesia, Australia, Chile) |
| NdPr (rare earths) | ~USD 83,000/t (Dec. 2025) | Trade disruptions |
| Tungsten | ×6 | Export restrictions |
Sources: IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 [3]; BDO/International Women in Mining, Annual Mining Report 2026 [4]
Export Restrictions as an Accelerant
Among the factors shaping these markets, export restrictions play an increasingly important role. Their impact is especially visible when a mineral's production or processing is concentrated in a handful of countries, since a change in trade rules can quickly cut the volumes available to other markets.
Since 2023, the number of mineral products subject to Chinese export controls has tripled [5]. These measures cover antimony, gallium, germanium, graphite, certain rare earths, and tungsten, as well as technologies tied to battery value chains [5]. The DRC has likewise introduced restrictions followed by an export quota on cobalt, contributing to a projected supply deficit for that mineral [3]. These episodes show how decisions made by a few major producing countries can rapidly reshape supply conditions across global markets [3].
Demand Fueled by the Energy Transition
Supply constraints alone don't explain the tensions seen in these markets. Demand for minerals linked to the energy transition also keeps climbing fast. In 2025, the energy sector accounted on average for roughly 75% of demand growth for the main energy minerals [5]. This trend goes hand in hand with the growing rollout of technologies that require substantial quantities of mineral materials.
The battery market offers a particularly clear illustration. Global demand grew by more than 35% in 2025, surpassing 1.5 TWh, while stationary storage emerged as an additional growth driver [5]. Against this backdrop, lithium demand rose by around 25% a year on average over the past two years [5]. Other minerals are similarly in high demand for power grids, wind turbines, solar panels, and permanent magnets.
This trend is expected to continue over the longer term. According to the IEA, demand for critical minerals could nearly double by 2040 under the Announced Pledges Scenario [2]. IRENA also notes that energy transition applications are likely to account for a growing share of demand for several materials.
To learn more: "Rare Earths and the Energy Transition: The Materials Powering the Green Revolution"
Geographic Concentration and Supply Risks
The geographic concentration of critical mineral production and refining hit record levels in 2025, amplifying the effects of export restrictions and geopolitical tensions.
The average share of the world's top supplier in refining energy minerals reached 70% in 2025, up from 68% in 2020. [5] Indonesia (for nickel) and China (for nearly all other key energy minerals) together accounted for more than three-quarters of total supply growth between 2023 and 2025. [5] China also controls more than three-quarters of global battery pretreatment capacity and 90% of materials recovery capacity. [5]
Conclusion
The rebound seen in 2025 and early 2026 is a reminder that critical mineral markets remain sensitive to shifts in supply, rising demand, and the trade decisions of major producing countries. Cobalt climbed by about 130% and lithium more than doubled over this period, while copper reached record highs [3][4]. Looking further ahead, the IEA projects that demand for critical minerals could nearly double by 2040 under the Announced Pledges Scenario [2].
In this context, diversifying supply chains remains a key concern for both the energy and industrial sectors. For jurisdictions like Canada and Quebec, which hold mineral resources and projects at various stages of development, these market shifts raise questions around sourcing, processing, and positioning within value chains. These are dynamics that Squatex continues to monitor as part of its operations and sector watch.
References
[1]: International Energy Agency. "Supply Concentration, Export Restrictions and Declining Investment Put Critical Mineral Security at Risk." International Energy Agency, 16 July 2026, https://www.iea.org/news/supply-concentration-export-restrictions-and-declining-investment-put-critical-mineral-security-at-risk.
[2]: "Critical Mineral Demand Grows Strongly despite Investment Decline: IEA." Xinhua, 16 July 2026, https://english.news.cn/20260716/fb1fc7fd6553413db2ade6639bb8618c/c.html.
[3]: "Critical Mineral Concerns Shift from Meeting Demand to Securing Supply Chains: IEA." Asian News International, 17 July 2026, https://www.aninews.in/news/business/critical-mineral-concerns-shift-from-meeting-demand-to-securing-supply-chains-iea20260717145754.
[4]: BDO LLP. Annual Mining Report 2026: An Inflection Point for the Industry: Critical Minerals, Sustainability and Innovation. 5 Feb. 2026, https://internationalwim.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/NRE-Report-BDO-Annual-Mining-Report-2026.pdf.
[5]: International Energy Agency. "Market Overview." Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, 16 July 2026, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/market-overview.
[6]: International Energy Agency. "Supply Concentration, Export Restrictions and Declining Investment Put Critical Mineral Security at Risk." Global Renewable News, 11 Aug. 2026, https://globalrenewablenews.com/article/energy/category/climate-change/82/1211703/supply-concentration-export-restrictions-and-d.
